Thanks for the link, johobbit. I've never heard of Wiarton Willie before. How do these groundhogs predict the spring with their shadows?
Groundhog Day, featuring Wiarton Willie, is a popular annual festival in Wiarton and is similar to events in other locations in North America. A midwinter celebration involving an animal with predictive powers was an element of Celtic culture.[1] The link between weather prediction and the day is said to have been inspired by an old Scottish couplet: "If Candlemas Day is bright and clear/ There'll be two winters in the year."[2]
It seems that Groundhog Day is a survival of Candlemas Day, whatever that festival was supposed to signify in religious terms, as opposed to weather terms. As far as I know, Candlemas is, in turn, a Christianisation of the old Celtic festival of Imbolc, just as Halloween continues on from Samhain, another old Celtic festival.
I take it, then, that the weather is now behaving as you'd expect for a Winter February up north?